The Waste Management Phoenix Open: A Deep Dive into Large-Field GPP Strategy
As we dive into the 2026 PGA DFS season, I've faced three consecutive weeks of losses. While I hope that Sky and Sam have seized the opportunity to pull ahead in our contributor contest (spoiler alert: they haven’t), I remain confident that my inevitable victory in the $200 single-entry tournament is just around the corner. Now, let’s shift our focus to the Waste Management Phoenix Open, affectionately known as The People’s Open. This event typically ranks among the most exciting weeks for golf enthusiasts who enjoy a lively atmosphere. Interestingly, this year, it coincides with the Super Bowl, raising the stakes for both events. Let's hope we don't end up with disappointing Round 4 contests, but with DraftKings, you can never be too sure. Over the last couple of weeks, it appears that the ETR Golf community has had a decent run, yet I genuinely believe we can elevate our performance substantially for the remainder of the season. It seems that many are beginning to realize that Data Golf may not be the gold standard for golfing data (who would have guessed?).
Farmers Insurance – A Brief Recap
Reflecting on the Farmers Insurance event, I didn’t perform terribly compared to my previous attempts and consider it my best week so far in 2026. However, it's worth noting that my overall performance was still down by 65%. Such is the unpredictable nature of lottery-style competitions, and I must emphasize that I can only maintain my current level of play because I consistently aim for first place in these tournaments. Many players in DFS approach the game by trying to compete against professionals using strategies that fail to set them apart from the majority. Your bankroll and overarching goals should significantly influence how you construct your lineups or MME sets. Those with larger bankrolls can afford to play solid projections with minimal differentiation, as they can withstand fluctuations. They remain optimistic about achieving a long-term, albeit possibly smaller, return on investment. This belief is where much of the edge lies in DFS; it's crucial to play accordingly.
Now, let’s analyze the winning lineup and its notable features:
- The lineup showcased a construction of 9/9/8/7/7/7, typical for entries avoiding high-profile players like Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, and Patrick Cantlay at the top. Interestingly, it included Chris Gotterup, a player I completely faded. While he wasn’t essential for the winning team, his inclusion illustrates the performance of other high-priced players that allowed him to creep in.
- With a cumulative ownership of 86%, this result is somewhat disappointing given the size of the field and the potential top prize. Kudos to Jade and Tanner for successfully leveraging their 300 lineups.
I truly hope for a return to a week where unconventional roster constructions take the win. It would be unfortunate for golf to become as predictable and unoriginal as NFL contests!
Preview of the Waste Management Phoenix Open
Moving on to the Waste Management, this event serves as the PGA Tour's unofficial kickoff to the season. Scheduled every year on Super Bowl weekend, the WM is renowned for being the ultimate party in golf. The unforgettable stadium par 3 hole stands out as one of the finest in the world, and I'm sure it will be buzzing, especially with Brooks Koepka making a comeback to a tournament he has triumphed in twice. Taking place annually at TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, Arizona, the WM presents a relatively straightforward challenge for the PGA Tour competitors. Here are the scores and winners from the past five tournaments:
- 2025: Thomas Detry (-24) triumphed over Daniel Berger and Michael Kim by seven strokes
- 2024: Nick Taylor (-21) defeated Charley Hoffman in a playoff
- 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19) emerged victorious against Nick Taylor by two strokes
- 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16) won in a playoff against Patrick Cantlay
- 2021: Brooks Koepka (-19) secured victory over Xander Schauffele and KH Lee by one stroke
Scoring is certainly achievable at this tournament. Will it become excessive? Likely not. It's essential to note that outside of Detry's incredible performance last year, the rest of the participants were generally consistent with the course's average. Of course, it wouldn’t surprise me if Scottie pulled away with the win, but golf is inherently unpredictable.
Once again, DraftKings is offering a $200K-to-first lottery, which is fantastic, as they're committed to providing excellent contests as we kick off the year. I expect this trend to intensify as we look forward to The Players Championship and The Masters. Given the typical lottery field size and the actual tournament size of 120 players, we shouldn't need to tinker with cumulative ownership rules, even though last week's winner had slightly higher ownership. I prefer to maintain a consistent approach to cumulative ownership rather than being overly reactive. My target remains within the 60-80% range for cumulative ownership, while I will certainly include some lower options in the 50% range.
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